October 2026 Tampa Bay Real Estate Market Report
Key Takeaways: October 2026 Tampa Bay Market Report
- Single-family sales of $1 million or more rose 37.8% in Pinellas County and 31.6% in Hillsborough County compared with September 2025.
- Pinellas’ median sale price climbed 9.4% to $465,000. Hillsborough held steady at $419,450.
- Overall sales slipped 9.0% in Pinellas and 7.4% in Hillsborough, with most of the decline below $400,000.
- Million-dollar homes are taking nearly twice as long to go under contract as the typical home.
Monthly market reports tend to lead with the median price. For a custom builder, the more telling story usually sits at the top of the market, and in September it was hard to miss.
Campagna Homes has built and remodeled luxury homes across Tampa Bay since 1952. That work keeps us close to what buyers are willing to pay for, and what they will pass on. September’s numbers line up with what we have watched build all year: fewer homes are selling overall, but more of them are selling at the high end.
This report covers September 2026, the most recent full month of data, for single-family homes in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.
How Did the Tampa Bay Real Estate Market Perform in September 2026?
| Metric | Pinellas County | Hillsborough County |
|---|---|---|
| Homes sold | 746 (down 9.0%) | 1,114 (down 7.4%) |
| Median sale price | $465,000 (up 9.4%) | $419,450 (down 1.3%) |
| Average sale price | $634,138 (up 12.1%) | $577,128 (up 10.1%) |
| Total sold volume | $473.1 million (up 2.0%) | $642.9 million (up 1.9%) |
| Median days to contract | 36 | 40 |
| Sold price vs. original list price | 94.7% | 96.2% |
| Active listings | 3,129 (down 14.2%) | 4,708 (down 3.6%) |
| Months of supply | 3.7 | 4.0 |
All changes are compared with September 2025.
Fewer homes sold, yet total dollar volume rose in both counties. That only happens when the mix of sales shifts upward, and the next table shows where.
Is Tampa Bay’s Luxury Market Still Growing?
| Sale Price | Pinellas Sales (vs. 2025) | Hillsborough Sales (vs. 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| $1M to $1.25M | 27 (up 8%) | 27 (down 7%) |
| $1.25M to $1.5M | 26 (up 44%) | 27 (up 50%) |
| $1.5M to $2M | 26 (up 100%) | 14 (down 18%) |
| $2M to $3M | 17 (up 70%) | 18 (up 80%) |
| $3M to $5M | 5 (down 29%) | 12 (up 500%) |
| Total $1M and up | 102 (up 38%) | 100 (up 32%) |
In Pinellas, about one in seven September sales closed at $1 million or more, up from roughly one in eleven a year earlier.
Florida Realtors’ chief economist noted this month that the upper end of the market continues to perform well statewide, even as higher mortgage rates weigh on overall sales. In Tampa Bay, that strength is showing up most clearly between $1.25 million and $3 million.
Are Tampa Bay Homes Selling at Asking Price?
Not quite, but closer than last year. The typical Pinellas home sold for 94.7% of its original asking price in September, up from 93.1% a year ago. In Hillsborough, the figure was 96.2%.
Time is the bigger difference at the top. The typical Pinellas home went under contract in 36 days, while homes selling for $1 million or more took 70 days. In Hillsborough, million-dollar homes took 60 days, compared with 40 for the market overall.
Luxury buyers are active, but they are deliberate. They compare finishes, construction quality and site details carefully, and they wait for the home that justifies the price.
Why Are Entry-Level Sales Slowing?
In Pinellas, sales under $400,000 fell by roughly a quarter from a year ago. Hillsborough saw declines across the $400,000 to $1 million range.
The main reason is financing. With mortgage rates back above 7%, buyers who depend on a loan feel the pressure most. Contract signings in September fell 9.2% in Pinellas and 15.8% in Hillsborough, which suggests closings will stay softer through the fall in those price ranges.
How Many Luxury Homes Are for Sale in Tampa Bay?
Overall inventory is tighter than a year ago, especially in Pinellas, where active listings fell 14.2%. Both counties sit below 5.5 months of supply, the level economists generally consider balanced.
The luxury segment is a different picture. There were 692 Pinellas homes listed at $1 million or more at the end of September and 592 in Hillsborough. At September’s sales pace, that is roughly six to seven months of supply. Million-dollar homes made up about 22% of Pinellas listings but only about 14% of its sales.
Buyers at this level have real choices, and well-built, well-priced homes are the ones that sell.
What Does This Mean If You’re Considering a Custom Home?
When buyers have options, quality becomes the deciding factor. The homes that stand out are the ones with modern layouts, strong construction, thoughtful indoor-outdoor living and the right fit for their site.
That is also the case for building. Much of the existing housing stock in Pinellas and Hillsborough was built decades ago. Buyers who want a home that reflects how they live today, without settling for compromises, often find that a custom home is the clearest path. The process starts long before construction, as we explain in Before the Build: How Pre-Construction Shapes a Luxury Custom Home in Tampa Bay.
Is Fall a Good Time to Plan a Home in Tampa Bay?
Tampa Bay’s calendar works differently from many markets. Last year, new contracts in Pinellas actually rose from September to October before tapering in December, as seasonal residents returned.
For homeowners planning a custom build, the cooler months are ideal for design and pre-construction. Decisions made this fall, from site evaluation to selections, set up a smoother start once construction begins. Whether you already own a homesite or are still looking, our team can help you find and evaluate the right lot.
Frequently Asked Questions
- How is the Tampa Bay real estate market doing in fall 2026?
The market is slower overall but strong at the top. In September 2026, single-family sales fell 9.0% in Pinellas County and 7.4% in Hillsborough County, while sales of $1 million or more rose 37.8% and 31.6%. - Are home prices going up in Tampa Bay?
In Pinellas, yes. The median single-family sale price rose 9.4% to $465,000 in September 2026. Hillsborough’s median was essentially flat at $419,450, down 1.3%. Average prices rose more than 10% in both counties, driven by more high-end sales. - Is Tampa Bay a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?
It depends on the price range. Overall supply sits near four months in both counties, which leans toward sellers. Above $1 million, roughly six to seven months of supply gives buyers more choice and negotiating room. - Which areas are included in this Tampa Bay market report?
This report covers single-family homes in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, including Tampa, Clearwater, Dunedin, Palm Harbor, Safety Harbor and Tarpon Springs. - How long does it take to sell a luxury home in Tampa Bay?
In September 2026, homes selling for $1 million or more took a median of 70 days to go under contract in Pinellas and 60 days in Hillsborough, compared with 36 and 40 days for the overall market.
Explore the possibilities:
- Luxury Tampa Bay Home Remodeling
- Tampa Bay Custom Homes
- Guide: How to Choose a Custom Home Builder in Florida
- Contact Page for Consultations
Market data: Florida Realtors® September 2026 monthly reports, compiled from Stellar MLS, for single-family homes in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. All changes are compared with September 2025.
